2013 Statistics Report

Rocky Mountain Conference of The United Methodist Church

2013 Statistician’s Report

Rev. Dr. C. Dennis Shaw, Conference Statistician[1]

The Challenge: Worship Attendance Continues Decline

The number of people who worship with us in the Rocky Mountain Conference has been on a steady, consistent decline over the past ten years, and this trend showed no sign of improvement during 2013. Worship attendance fell by over 800, which was the second-largest annual loss in a decade. Over that time the Conference has seen more than 4,000 leave our pews.  While indeed many churches in our Conference are stronger this year than last, overall this single most important measurement of church vitality makes it clear that we are not reaching people in our communities with the aim of “making disciples.”

In 2013 we showed larger losses in membership and a larger decline in attendance than in 2012. 

	Membership	Attendance
From 2011 Reports	64,698	30,746
2011 to 2012 -- Losses	1,390	506
2012 to 2013 -- Losses	2,213	841
Where we ended 2013	61,095	29,399

Table 1:  Membership Loss and Attendance Decline over Last Two Years

The above table shows a two-year loss totaling 5.6% of our 2011 membership and 4.4% of our 2011 average attendance.  In fact, our attendance dropped below 30,000 for 2013 and is the lowest reported since Sunday attendance became a statistical measurement in 1968. 

For the past several years, much of the decline has flowed from a few of our larger churches.  In fact, in 2013, twelve churches alone lost 600 worshippers, which was more than 70 percent of our decline. 

A good way to measure changes in worship attendance among different sized churches is by comparing overall attendance to the median attendance. This is shown in Chart 1 on the next page. The median (the line) represents the “middle of the conference” worshipping congregation, with an equal number of churches larger as smaller. Therefore, of 253 churches examined, the midpoint is church number 127 in attendance.  I have plotted this median church number for the past ten years.  Looking at Chart 1, you will notice that the median drops to 68.5 in 2006 and has hovered in that region for eight years, with a median change of only about four people.  This supports the observation that much of the attendance change over the last few years has been centered in our larger churches.

Chart 1:  Average and Median Attendance for the last 10 years

However, over a ten year span, our decline in average attendance has impacted both larger and smaller churches.  From 2004 to 2006 this decline was more focused in smaller churches but they appear to have stabilized.  Since 2006 the decline appears to be more focused within a few, larger churches that have experienced significant losses in attendance. As I said earlier, twelve churches accounted for more than 70 percent of our attendance decline in 2013.

Disciple Making

The United Methodist Church intends to “make disciples of Jesus Christ for the transformation of the world.” Our mission statement compels us to make disciples. Are we succeeding? Let’s look at three measures of disciple making:  New Christians, Baptisms, and Confirmations. Then we’ll compare these indicators to our decline in attendance.

Over the past ten years, we have lost 13% in our average Sunday attendance.  If our decline in disciple making were comparable with that decline it would be in the range of 13%.  It is not.  It is in fact, much worse.  Our decline in attendance is modest compared to our decline in the making of new disciples, as the following table shows:

Description	2004	2013	Change
Average attendance at all weekly worship services	100%	87%	Down 13%
New Christians (Professions of Faith and Restored)	100%	65%	Down 35%
Number of persons baptized	100%	63%	Down 37%
Total enrolled in confirmation classes	100%	64%	Down 36%

Table 2:  A Comparison of 2013 from 2004 in Four Indicators of Vitality

Using 2004 as the baseline, this data looks at how we are doing making disciples through our local church ministries. While our attendance is at 87% of where we were ten years ago, we are actually much less effective (or about 65% of the 2004 number) in making disciples. This is about two times the decline we would expect, given our attendance losses over the same period. So, what hope is there that these trends can be reversed?  Hope is indeed present. 

There is vitality among some of our churches, both large and small. Looking at all the churches in the conference, 87 showed an increase in 2013 in worship attendance.  Of those showing greater attendance, these 25 reported increases in all three of the other vitality categories, (New Christian, Baptism, and Confirmation):

Church	District
Boulder St Paul’s	P&P
Canon City First	Sunshine
Cedaredge Community	UWC
Cheyenne First	WYNECO
Cheyenne Grace	WYNECO
Chugwater	WYNECO
Colorado Springs Central	MHPP
Colorado Springs St Paul’s	MHPP
Durango First	UWC
Fort Lupton First	P&P
Greenwood Village Hope	MHPP
Heritage	MHPP

Louisville	P&P
Loveland Trinity	P&P
Ogden Community	UWC
Olathe	UWC
Pueblo Adriance	Sunshine
Rifle	UWC
Rock Springs First	WYNECO
Salt Lake City Christ	UWC
Salt Lake City First	UWC
Sandy Hilltop	UWC
Washington Park	Metro
Westminster	Metro
Wheatland	WYNECO

Healthy Churches Begin New Congregations

From 1945 to 2001, more than 60 churches were started in what is now the Rocky Mountain Conference.  On average, we started more than one new church a year.

In the last thirteen years, we have started only two churches. As we celebrate the chartering of Elizabeth UMC in 2014, we should remember that it’s our first chartering in over a decade. 

There was a time when the “People Called Methodists” started other churches in their communities.  They shared people, time, talents, and treasure, to give birth to new congregations. At the same time, they experienced growth.  Our recent history includes:

Colorado Springs First starting four churches in Colorado Springs from 1957 to 1987, 
and in 2013, they were the highest attendance church in the Rocky Mountain Conference. 
 St. Andrew (sacrificially), Littleton and Park Hill contributing to the start of St. Luke’s. 
 Hope contributing to the start of Smoky Hill. 
 Salt Lake City Christ contributing to the start of Mountain Vista. 
 The sale of Pueblo Faith leading directly to the establishment of Pueblo West SonRise.
 Most recently, Elizabeth being born with Parker as the parent.

With the exception of Pueblo Faith intentionally acting as an Elijah, passing the mantle to the Elisha that is Pueblo West SonRise, all of these churches that gave of their precious treasure, talent and time are still vital, still alive, still beacons of hope.  We know how to do this.

Deaths haven’t caused our decline

                                                        Chart 2:  Comparing “New Christians” with Deaths

I provide Chart 2 to demonstrate that our decline in membership is not accounted for by the unavoidable loss of members through death.  We are more than replacing those who have died with New Christians although at a lower rate than in earlier years.  Our challenge is to keep the disciples we have created, who are leaving for other churches or no church at all.

An Example of Missional Good News: Increased Measures of Outreach, Justice and Mercy

There are other bright spots that create hopefulness among the measurements of church vitality. For example, in 2009 we began to document the number of people touched by the local church through ministries of outreach, justice and mercy.  Many of our churches have reported increases in the number of souls touched by this missional outreach.  The increase in four years from 150,000 to nearly 380,000 (in 2013) may be a reflection of increased awareness by reporting churches. But it’s a positive trend, nonetheless.  I encourage churches to continue measuring their outreach, as an opportunity to celebrate serving as the hands of Christ in the world around us. If you have thoughts that we can use to celebrate missional activity not captured in our statistical measures, please do send me a note at mantuan@frii.com.

Vitality takes a variety of forms

Paul writes in Romans 5 about suffering, endurance, character, sequentially leading to hope, “and hope does not disappoint us, because God’s love has been poured into our hearts through the Holy Spirit that has been given to us.”  From that hope, God calls us to action! 

Vitality leading to hope can be displayed in a variety of transformational ways that are not measured by numbers but are best understood by narrative. In many areas of our lives, data transformed into information often leads us to call for action.  Here, I believe the unsustainability of our current course requires a new narrative leading to a new and hopeful direction because it will be difficult, if not impossible, to transform the world without disciples.

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[1] Chris Frasier, Co-Chair of the RMC Board of Stewards and Noreen Keleshian, Conference Treasurer, substantially edited this Report.  Rev. Dr. Melanie Rosa, DS for the Mile High/Pikes Peak District and Kristi Kinnison, Executive Director, Rocky Mountain United Methodist Foundation, provided additional assistance.  Dr. Rob Gordon, President of the Council of Finance and Administration provided, insight into elements of this analysis.  I am grateful for the team effort this project represents. 

Disciple Making

Matthew 28: 19-20 (NRSV) reads  “Go therefore and make disciples of all nations, baptizing them in the name of the Father and of the Son and of the Holy Spirit,  teaching them to observe all that I have commanded you; and lo, I am with you always, to the close of the age.”

We have returned to a conversation about an additional service.  We are doing this for many reasons.  One is that we said we would look at it.  Hilltop leadership promised when we went from three services to one in 2012 to examine later that year to relook the number of services.  That was done but we weren’t ready in late 2012, early 2013.  We talked about it in March/April 2013 and got some push back on “how do you know what you know?”  A survey was our response and it was valuable in establishing what we think we know. 

It is time to look at the idea of an additional service again.  I do not wish to convey in any of my conversations that there is a human inevitability to the idea but I do pray we see the need to grow as biblical. 

The passage from Matthew forms an important part of my theology.  We should not be advocating growth because it will help us pay our bills, or to have a larger music program or allow us to increase the hours available for our Children and Youth Ministry leaders are able to be financially compensated.  We should be advocating growth because we believe that this church can be part of leading others to faithfulness in Jesus.  There is not a one size fits all pattern for this.

 

The mission of the United Methodist Church is to “make disciples of Jesus Christ” for a purpose:  “transformation.”  The local church, Hilltop in this case, is where that disciple making leading to transformation occurs. 

I pray we can align our bottom line on this with God’s bottom line.  The Matthew 28: 19-20 guidance above are the last words Jesus says in Matthew.  They constitute a good bottom line, at least until a better one comes along.  All of the rest of the conversation should be about the details. 

Selah, Pastor Dennis 

Stewardship Moment from June 1, 2014

Skip Poole, a member of the Stewardship Committee, presented the following thoughts during our Ministry Moment on June 1, 2014:

"I want to speak to you briefly about congregational giving.  All numbers being shown are monthly averages. 

Our 2014 budget was established with a combination of pledges and an estimate of giving from those who did not pledge.

Our budget assumes total giving from the congregation of nearly $28,000 a month … that is the black column on the chart.  Through the end of May we are averaging right at $26,500 from the congregation … that is the blue column.  The green column is the pledged portion of the budget and burgundy is actual giving. 

Hilltop Congregational Giving January to May, 2014

Our pledged giving is about $2,200 a month below pledge but about a third of that has been made up by increased other giving.  Our income is about $1,300 a month below target from the congregation.

Our finances are in good shape.  Congregational giving for the first five months of 2014 is ahead of where we were at this time in 2013.

Thank you.  Your financial leadership wanted you to be aware of where we were as we get ready for the summer.  

Again, thank you for your faithful stewardship." 

Six Simple Truths

If I were to be bold enough to paraphrase Ralph Waldo Emerson, Junior I might offer:  “Simplicity before complexity is worthless, but simplicity on the other side of complexity is of extreme value.”[*]  I guess I was bold enough to paraphrase Ralph Waldo Emerson, Junior, right?

 

Following Easter, we are going to offer a Sermon Series on Six Simple Truths of Life.  I could maybe offer elements from this series as maxims of life and while I pray they might not be literally worthless, their real value will come from exploring them, in community, deeper. 

These are the Six Simple Truths we plan to explore:

•        Truth #1 – The Golden Rule. 
•        Truth #2 – Six important words – Forgive as the Father Forgave You. 
•        Truth #3 – Life’s challenges are best dealt with if we are prepared. 
•        Truth #4 -- Our contentment lies within us. 
•        Truth #5 -- We stand on the shoulders of others. 
•        Truth #6 -- At the end of the game of life, all of it goes back in the box. 

The series will also pause and draw, deeply I hope, from the secular wells of Mother’s Day and Memorial Day.  We will also recognize our graduates the last week of this time together.  In addition, our various bell choirs will lead us musically in worship once during this period. 

This series is about equipping and growing.  It is our intent to extend the right hand of hospitality and fellowship to new visitors who might have experienced Hilltop for the first time during our Easter worship.  We believe we offer spiritual growth, that is making an application between ancient words and daily lives is a critical element of how we spiritually nourish and are nourished.  Growth and application are in fact core parts of my credo (belief).  I hope we might increase those foci (the plural of focus) a little and offer life lessons to those who might not have a church family. 

Share this hope with others and invite them to experience The New Hilltop! 

Selah, Pastor Dennis

Version of April 22, 2014.  This might be edited a little over time.

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[*] Emerson wrote:  “I would not give a fig for the simplicity this side of complexity, but I would give my life for the simplicity on the other side of complexity.”

Hope

Hilltop is going to use this February, this “Black History Month,” to look at the theological and biblical understanding of hope.  Black music will help us frame this discussion. 

Hope is:  “To trust in, wait for, look for, or desire something or someone; or to expect something beneficial in the future.”

In the Hebrew Bible, there are several verbs that may in certain contexts be translated "to hope" in English.  Jeremiah uses one to teach that the Lord is the hope of Israel which means that Israel's God is worthy of trust. Another noun from the same root is often also translated "hope" meaning "trust." Similarly, a different Hebrew verb is drawn from a different word meaning "to trust.” 

Biblical hope is more than wishful, happy, what is sometimes called “Pollyanna,” thinking.

Biblical hope includes the idea of trust, it includes the idea of expectation. 

In the Bible believers are encouraged to wait for God hopefully and expectantly. In times of trouble one should wait for the Lord, who will turn things around.  Sometimes expressions of hope are accompanied by the prayer that the supplicant will not be ashamed, that is, disappointed.  God promises that those who wait for him will not be disappointed.  God is able to bring about the realization of one's hopes.

Hope has a sanctifying effect. We who look expectantly for the return of Christ, knowing that when we see him we shall become like him, purify ourselves "as he is pure" (1 John 3:3 ). Hope also stimulates good works. Following his teaching on resurrection of the dead, Paul exhorts his readers to do the Lord's work abundantly since such "labor is not in vain" (1 Corinthians 15:51-58 ).

Hope is at the center of the black musical experience.  The words often convey a confidence, expectation, and hopefulness that the current trials and tribulations are not permanent. 

I personally find the confidence the black community has in the biblical concept of hope to be encouraging and inspiring.  A people who by much of the visible and historical witness had reasons to be hopeless, have been ever hopeful.  Hope can be inspiring.  Hope can be contagious.  I pray that in February, we can draw in the breath of God and catch the virus of hope. 

Selah, Pastor Dennis

End of Year – Sort of …

In June, we made dramatic changes in where we spent our money at Hilltop.  In addition, the church leadership saw a need for us to speak more frequently about how we are doing from an income basis.  For those in worship on Sunday, December 22, I spoke for a few minutes on where we are from an income level and our financial position.

We have available to us three piles of money.  They are not equal in terms of our ability to reach them to help us handle our obligations.

 

We have an endowment (shown in green on the chart in figure 1) and it has grown over $20,000 in the last two years.  It is by intentional and appropriate design, the most difficult to access.  This is good.  This account has over $120,000 in it as of the end of November. 

Figure 1:  Resources Potentially Available to Hilltop

Next we have money that has either been designated for specific purposes by the donor or the church (shown in blue on the chart in figure 1).  Donor designated is more restrictive in what we may or may not do with those resources.  Money by a donor for a new sound system is restricted.  Money designated by the church for a new sound system is not.  This is also good.  This account has over $60,000 in it as of the end of November.  Various building accounts, mission resources, and funds generated for both choir robes and youth make up the vast majority of these resources.

 

Finally, we have those resources that provide us the banking fluidity to conduct monthly business (shown in red on the chart in figure 1).  Frankly it was the $30,000 drop in this account between January, 2012 and May, 2013 that prompted us to set in motion a change in authorized spending and our more active discussion of church finances.  This account has rebounded.  This is also good.  This account has over $47,000 in it as of the end of November and that is +$13,000 over where we were in May.

 

We have over $220,000 to help us finance the church.  It is not all liquid.  It is not all disposable at a moment’s notice.  But we are in a better place than we were in May.

 

Our spending for 2014 will be based on our approved budget which decreases proposed budgetary spending by right at $40,000.

Figure 2:  Congregational Giving

Figure 2 represents monthly cash flow by the congregation to support the operations of the church.  Blue was 2012 and red is 2013.  This is not choir robe, building designated or a pass-through heading to Denver, Salt Lake or Nashville. It is what comes in from the congregation to support the operations of the church.  As I write this, we need for a little over $35,000 to come in for December to allow us to exceed last year for December.  December is a five-Sunday month and that usually helps a little. 

Figure 3:  Some Thoughts

Figure 3 is a collection of thoughts.  It does extend a request to those who plan on catching up by December 31^st for IRS purposes.  This last Sunday past is basically our probable last collection opportunity for that.  We count and deposit once a week.   The real point newsletter point here is the Capital Campaign for the Sound System.  We want to get this in time to install and work out the newness by Easter.  If you were here for the December 8^th Community Event, you heard the board issues in our welcome and initial invocations.  We cannot fix this too soon.  That said, resources for the Sound System must be from extra mile giving and not a diversion of operational resources.

 

We have in the last few weeks made decisions to resume the payment of our “apportionment” to the Conference.  On another day I will write an article on what that is but I do ask that you trust it is a good investment in the ministries of the United Methodist Church.  Additionally, we shared nearly $6,500 with others beyond our walls.  These include but are not limited to:  Crossroads, United Methodist Committee on Relief, Salt Lake Rescue Mission, the Utah-Western Colorado Committee on Native American Ministries.  Finally, half of our Christmas Eve offering went to Imagine No Malaria.  We are well on the way to making our $10,000 goal here, standing at $9,000+ on December 30, 2013.  In fact, in this area, we are the best UM Church in Utah.

 

Overall, I am optimistic, cautiously so, but optimistic nonetheless about our finances.  We are managing our spending more consistent with our real income.  I do continue to believe that we are under resourcing the building and long term, we need to be more diligent in designating resources away from operations into infrastructure sustainment.  We will get there.

 

Selah, Pastor Dennis